The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intertwined with macro caution, SHFE tin fluctuated rangebound in the afternoon session [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of September 10, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract opened lower at 269,080 yuan/mt and fluctuated rangebound during the session, closing at 270,370 yuan/mt by midday, up 580 yuan/mt (0.21%) from the previous trading day. The domestic market exhibited a tug-of-war between "strong supply constraints" and "weak real demand," with price volatility narrowing and trading sentiment turning cautious. Meanwhile, LME tin futures remained under pressure overnight, temporarily quoted at $34,275/mt, up $240 (0.71%). The rebound in inventory and narrowing spot premiums suggested slight easing in short-term overseas supply pressure.

Uncertainty from a macro perspective remains the key factor influencing market sentiment. The US dollar index rebounded after consecutive days of decline due to technical oversold conditions, pressuring the metals sector. Market focus centers on upcoming US PPI and CPI data, which may further shape US Fed policy expectations and global liquidity outlook, with most capital adopting a wait-and-see approach. Geopolitical tensions also triggered safe-haven demand, prompting some bulls to exit and capping tin's rebound.

Traders actively offloaded cargoes while some end-users bought on dips, resulting in moderate overall market turnover. However, terminal orders underperformed historical levels, delaying the typical September peak season recovery.

For the afternoon session, low inventory and tight supply will continue providing solid floor support for tin prices. Notably, domestic social inventory shifted to accumulation after four weeks of drawdowns, while demand improvement remained limited, constraining upside room. Tin prices are expected to hold up well at elevated levels in the short term, with directional breakthroughs awaiting fresh macro catalysts or fundamental signals.